2025 AFL Grand Final AI Analysis by Matilda
AFL Grand Final 2025 Ultimate Showdown
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions: A Clash of Philosophies in the Race for Dynasty Dominance
Date & Time
Saturday, 27 September 2025
2:30pm AEST
Venue
Melbourne Cricket Ground
The Home of Football
Capacity
100,024
Expected Sellout
Geelong Cats
2nd Place • 17-6
QF Winners
VS
Brisbane Lions
3rd Place • 16-6-1
Reigning Premiers
The case for each team
Geelong's Path to Victory
- Qualifying final blueprint proves they can beat Brisbane at the MCG
- Superior defensive metrics and pressure game
- Better injury list management and structural depth
- Multi-dimensional attack with 13 different goal-kickers
- Systematic approach thrives under pressure
Brisbane's Path to Victory
- Lachie Neale's return would be a massive game-changer
- Midfield stars (McCluggage, Ashcroft) can dominate stoppages
- Champion mentality and Grand Final experience
- Ability to turn chaos into scoring opportunities
- Backs-to-the-wall narrative can unite the team
Team Analysis
Geelong Cats
The Perfection of Process
2
Ladder Position
141.5%
Percentage
Key Players
Jeremy Cameron
Forward
83 goals (Coleman Medal)
Bailey Smith
Midfield
31 disposals/game
Tom Stewart
Defender
All-Australian (5× AA: 2018, 2019, 2021–2023)
Strengths
- Elite pressure game
- Multi-dimensional forward line (13 different goal-kickers in QF)
- Systematic ball movement
- Strong defensive structure
- MCG experience and form
Brisbane Lions
The Defiance of a Dynasty
3
Ladder Position
114.2%
Percentage
Key Players
Hugh McCluggage
Midfield
37 disposals in PF
Will Ashcroft
Midfield
Norm Smith Medallist
Lachie Neale
Midfield
Dual Brownlow Medallist
Strengths
- Champion DNA and resilience
- Proven finals experience (3rd consecutive GF)
- Elite midfield firepower
- Comeback ability (7-goal 3rd quarter vs Collingwood)
- Underdog motivation
Team Stats: Season Overview
Key performance metrics heading into the Grand Final
Brisbane Lions
Geelong Cats
Points For
Points Against
Disposals
Kicks
Handballs
Tackles
Clearances
Inside 50s
Season statistics comparison showing key performance metrics for both teams
Head-to-Head History
Round 3
The Gabba
Brisbane Lions
9.7 (61)
10.10 (70)
9
points • Brisbane win
Round 15
Kardinia Park
Brisbane Lions
6.15 (51)
14.8 (92)
41
points • Brisbane win
Qualifying Final
MCG
Geelong Cats
16.16 (112)
11.8 (74)
38
points • Geelong win
Injury Impact Analysis
Injury Impact Analysis
Geelong's Challenge
Quality over quantity concerns
Tom Stewart (Out)
Loss of All-Australian defender and key architect of rebound from back half
Defensive Structure Impact
Significant hole in intercept marking and ball movement initiation
Leadership Void
Stewart's on-field direction and composure under pressure will be missed
Brisbane's Challenge
Systemic depth crisis
7 Season-ending Injuries
Unprecedented injury crisis across all lines of the ground
Defensive Stocks Depleted
Payne and Doedee both out - tall defensive options severely limited
Lachie Neale (TBC)
Potential return would provide massive psychological and tactical boost
Forward Line Adjustments
Structural changes required due to Hipwood's absence
Key Insight
While Geelong's best defender is out, Brisbane's injury crisis is systemic across every line. The Lions' depth will be severely tested, making this potentially the deciding factor in the Grand Final.
Prediction Analysis
Factor Impact Analysis
Brisbane Advantage
Geelong Advantage
Injury List Impact
+60.0
MCG Form & Experience
+51.0
Pressure Game
+40.0
Forward Line Depth
+30.0
Midfield Battle
-20.0
Mental Resilience
-15.0
Coaching Adjustments
+10.0
Finals Experience
-5.0
Positive values favor Geelong•Negative values favor Brisbane•score range -100 to +100
Bar length represents weighted impact based on factor importance