2025 AFL Grand Final AI Analysis by Matilda
AFL Grand Final 2025 Ultimate Showdown
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions: A Clash of Philosophies in the Race for Dynasty Dominance

Date & Time

Saturday, 27 September 2025

2:30pm AEST

Venue

Melbourne Cricket Ground

The Home of Football

Capacity

100,024

Expected Sellout

Geelong Cats colors
Geelong Cats
2nd Place • 17-6
QF Winners
VS
Brisbane Lions colors
Brisbane Lions
3rd Place • 16-6-1
Reigning Premiers

The case for each team

Geelong's Path to Victory

  • Qualifying final blueprint proves they can beat Brisbane at the MCG
  • Superior defensive metrics and pressure game
  • Better injury list management and structural depth
  • Multi-dimensional attack with 13 different goal-kickers
  • Systematic approach thrives under pressure

Brisbane's Path to Victory

  • Lachie Neale's return would be a massive game-changer
  • Midfield stars (McCluggage, Ashcroft) can dominate stoppages
  • Champion mentality and Grand Final experience
  • Ability to turn chaos into scoring opportunities
  • Backs-to-the-wall narrative can unite the team

Team Analysis

Geelong Cats logo

Geelong Cats

The Perfection of Process

2
Ladder Position
141.5%
Percentage

Key Players

Jeremy Cameron avatar
Jeremy Cameron
Forward
83 goals (Coleman Medal)
Bailey Smith avatar
Bailey Smith
Midfield
31 disposals/game
Tom Stewart avatar
Tom Stewart
Defender
All-Australian (5× AA: 2018, 2019, 2021–2023)

Strengths

  • Elite pressure game
  • Multi-dimensional forward line (13 different goal-kickers in QF)
  • Systematic ball movement
  • Strong defensive structure
  • MCG experience and form
Brisbane Lions logo

Brisbane Lions

The Defiance of a Dynasty

3
Ladder Position
114.2%
Percentage

Key Players

Hugh McCluggage avatar
Hugh McCluggage
Midfield
37 disposals in PF
Will Ashcroft avatar
Will Ashcroft
Midfield
Norm Smith Medallist
Lachie Neale avatar
Lachie Neale
Midfield
Dual Brownlow Medallist

Strengths

  • Champion DNA and resilience
  • Proven finals experience (3rd consecutive GF)
  • Elite midfield firepower
  • Comeback ability (7-goal 3rd quarter vs Collingwood)
  • Underdog motivation

Team Stats: Season Overview

Key performance metrics heading into the Grand Final

Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions
Geelong Cats
Geelong Cats
Points For
Points Against
Disposals
Kicks
Handballs
Tackles
Clearances
Inside 50s
Season statistics comparison showing key performance metrics for both teams

Head-to-Head History

Round 3

The Gabba
Brisbane Lions
Geelong Cats logo
Geelong
9.7 (61)
Brisbane Lions logo
Brisbane
10.10 (70)
9
pointsBrisbane win

Round 15

Kardinia Park
Brisbane Lions
Geelong Cats logo
Geelong
6.15 (51)
Brisbane Lions logo
Brisbane
14.8 (92)
41
pointsBrisbane win

Qualifying Final

MCG
Geelong Cats
Geelong Cats logo
Geelong
16.16 (112)
Brisbane Lions logo
Brisbane
11.8 (74)
38
pointsGeelong win

Injury Impact Analysis

Injury Impact Analysis

Geelong Cats logo

Geelong's Challenge

Quality over quantity concerns

Tom Stewart (Out)
Loss of All-Australian defender and key architect of rebound from back half
Defensive Structure Impact
Significant hole in intercept marking and ball movement initiation
Leadership Void
Stewart's on-field direction and composure under pressure will be missed
Brisbane Lions logo

Brisbane's Challenge

Systemic depth crisis

7 Season-ending Injuries
Unprecedented injury crisis across all lines of the ground
Defensive Stocks Depleted
Payne and Doedee both out - tall defensive options severely limited
Lachie Neale (TBC)
Potential return would provide massive psychological and tactical boost
Forward Line Adjustments
Structural changes required due to Hipwood's absence
Key Insight

While Geelong's best defender is out, Brisbane's injury crisis is systemic across every line. The Lions' depth will be severely tested, making this potentially the deciding factor in the Grand Final.

Prediction Analysis

Factor Impact Analysis

Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Advantage
Geelong Cats
Geelong Advantage
Injury List Impact
+60.0
MCG Form & Experience
+51.0
Pressure Game
+40.0
Forward Line Depth
+30.0
Midfield Battle
-20.0
Mental Resilience
-15.0
Coaching Adjustments
+10.0
Finals Experience
-5.0
Positive values favor GeelongNegative values favor Brisbanescore range -100 to +100
Bar length represents weighted impact based on factor importance